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Αβεβαιότητα και αλυσίδες παραγωγής. Του Ηλία Καραβόλια.

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Άραγε οι γραμμές συναρμολόγησης του φόβου σήμερα έχουν κάποια συσχέτιση με τις γραμμές συναρμολόγησης του εμπορεύματος ; Δηλαδή σχετίζεται η παραγωγή και οι παγκόσμιες εφοδιαστικές αλυσίδες, με τον ψυχισμό, με το θυμικό μας ; Οι φοβίες μας προς το παρόν ξορκίζονται με επιστρεπτέες προκαταβολές και αποζημιώσεις ειδικού σκοπού, λεφτά τα οποία οι περισσότεροι δεν ξοδεύουν βλέποντας το αβέβαιο της κατάστασης. Οπότε το καταραμένο δανεικό απόθεμα, υπερτερεί της δαπάνης, και κάπως έτσι δεν παίρνει μπρος η οικονομία. Επειδή όμως η φιλοσοφία που συνδέει εμπόρευμα με φόβο, είναι μεν η άλγεβρα της Ιστορίας, ωστόσο δεν χρειάζεται βαθύς στοχασμός για να αναγνωρίσουμε την πλεονάζουσα αβεβαιότητα στις κοινωνίες.

Αυτή που πηγάζει απο την αλληλεπίδραση των οικονομιών. Φανταστείτε λοιπόν την Κίνα να κάνει με την Apple ότι έκανε ο Τραμπ πριν τρία χρόνια που απέκλεισε την κινεζική Huawei απο τις τηλεπικοινωνίες στις ΗΠΑ. Και δεν είναι μόνο η Apple. Πλήθος αμερικανικών και ευρωπαικών εταιρειών έχουν μια εφοδιαστική αλυσίδα, με γραμμές παραγωγής-εξαρτήματα-πρώτες ύλες, σε Κίνα και ασιατικές χώρες. Και φυσικά πουλάνε και τα προιόντα τους σε δισεκατομμύρια ασιάτες που πλέον έχουν αυξημένο εισόδημα και δεν αποτελούν το φθηνό εργοστάσιο του πλανήτη.

Με απλά λόγια : αν οι Κινέζοι αποφασίσουν να μην αγοράζουν οι πολίτες τους το i-phone, ίσως δείτε μεσοπρόθεσμα μειώσεις στα εισοδήματα σας, άσχετα αν ζείτε στην Ελλάδα ! Μην σας φαίνεται καθόλου παράξενο. Έτσι λειτουργεί ο παγκοσμιοποιημένος καπιταλισμός. Πτώση δυνητικής κερδοφορίας σημαίνει ότι θα σκάσουν τα φουσκωμένα χρηματιστήρια και ως συνήθως, θα αρχίσουν να κοινωνικοποιούνται οι ζημίες απο τα κράτη που ήδη χρεώθηκαν πολλά ως καθολικοί εργοδότες. Όπως όμως γράφει ο Pignal στον Economist, οι ευρωπαικές επιχειρήσεις κάποτε ήλπιζαν να ωφεληθούν απο τους καβγάδες ΗΠΑ-Κίνας. Όχι πλέον. Προφανώς εννοεί απο την περίοδο μετά τους δασμούς που επέβαλλε ο Τραμπ. Η ανθρωπότητα ζεί έναν εκκωφαντικό εμπορικό πόλεμο κάτω απο την σκιά του θανάτου και της πανδημίας. Η μεταδοτικότητα του ιού είναι παράλληλη με την μεταδοτικότητα ζημιών και κερδών στα ταμεία πολυεθνικών.

Είναι παράλληλη με τις τιμές στα χρηματιστήρια και το παρασιτικό κεφάλαιο. Είναι ιογενής η κατάσταση όπως και αν την ερμηνεύσει κανείς( βλ. την σχετική ανάλυση του Μ. Εμμανουηλίδη στις Θέσεις, τ.153, Άνθρωποι-ζώα, κράτη και μηχανές που έρχονται από έξω. Ομολογίες ιού και χρηματιστικού κεφαλαίου). Για να προστατεύσουμε τις ζωές μας χρειάζεται η ιατρική επιστήμη να αποδώσει τα μέγιστα στην έρευνα εμβολίων-φαρμάκων. Για να μην παραταθεί όμως η ύφεση/κατάθλιψη (depression) στις ζωές μας, για να υπάρξει μια κάποια ελπίδα βιώσιμης ανάκαμψης, πρέπει να αποκατασταθεί η παγκόσμια ισορροπία ισχύος του συστήματος. Όσο και αν ακούγεται παράξενο, χρειαζόμαστε περισσότερη πληροφόρηση απο την κρατικο-καπιταλιστική οικονομία της Κίνας και περισσότερη αποδοτικότητα της κρατικής παρέμβασης στις ΗΠΑ και στην ΕΕ.

Τα λεφτά του καθενός, που ενδεχομένως να τελειώσουν γρήγορα όταν και όποτε τελειώσουν τα lockdown, θα είναι συνάρτηση του μεγάλου εμπορικού πολέμου Κίνας-ΗΠΑ και της επίδρασης που θα έχει στις χώρες της ΕΕ. Όπως το ακούτε. Πάντα όταν μαλώνουν τα βουβάλια, την πληρώνουν τα βατράχια. Και στην υπερχρεωμένη Ευρώπη, μετά τον μοναχικό δρόμο της Μ.Βρετανίας αλλά κυρίως με την ηγεμονία της προτεσταντικής λογικής της Γερμανίας, είμαστε τα βατράχια στον παγκόσμιο ωκεανό του εμπορίου και της παραγωγής…

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이번 생애에서 그는 술을 많이 마셨고 모두를 겁에 질려 침묵하게 만들었습니다.

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대체 뭐야, 어디서 그렇게 많은 것들이 나왔어.

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모두를 바라보며 한 사람 한 사람 정중하게 그에게 경의를 표하며…

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“바로 거기야!” Yang Biao는 “북동쪽으로”라고 신나게 말했다.

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