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Αγορές και Πλήθος στην εποχή της υπερταχύτητας Του Ηλία Καραβόλια

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Στα χρηματιστήρια δεν χωράνε επαναστάσεις, ακτιβισμός, αντικαπιταλιστικά αντανακλαστικά, συντονισμός πλήθους. Δεν επικρατεί στην ουσία εκδημοκρατισμός πρόσβασης στην πληροφόρηση (βλ. «ασύμμετρη πληροφόρηση»).Οι παίχτες είναι πολλών ειδών, διαφορετικής ισχύος και μεγέθους. Οι ανισότητες στις κερδοσκοπικές ευκαιρίες είναι πλέον ζήτημα σοβαρό. Οι αγορές είναι προσαρμοστικές μεν (βλ Lu, The adaptive markets ) αλλά απρόβλεπτες δε, επειδή στην πραγματικότητα δεν είναι δίκαιες και αποτελεσματικές : «ελέγχονται» από ισχυρά ολιγοπώλια διαχειριστών κεφαλαίων( που μπορεί να είναι από συνταξιοδοτικά ταμεία μέχρι υπερκέρδη κολοσσών). Άλλωστε πλέον το κεφάλαιο διαφέρει μόνο όταν πολλαπλασιάζεται υπό καθεστώς περιορισμών. Και εδώ είναι που χωλαίνει η νέο κεϋνσιανή θεώρηση( ίσως, το ίδιο και η νεομαρξιστική.
Αλλά δεν έχω εντρυφήσει αρκετά στο συγκεκριμένο θέμα για να είμαι ειλικρινής) Γράφω τα παραπάνω διοτι το συλλογικό υποκείμενο «αγορές», με σύμβολο του την Wall Street, δέχθηκε πρόσφατα «ναρκισσιστικό πλήγμα» στο καπιταλιστικό του ασυνείδητο. Ένας συνασπισμός πολλών μικροεπενδυτών ανέβασε μια μετοχή σχεδόν 8 φορές πάνω, σε έναν χρόνο περίπου, και οδήγησε τις προάλλες έναν μεγάλο θεσμικό κερδοσκοπικό οργανισμό, που πόνταρε πολλά στην πτώση της ίδιας μετοχής( σορτάρισμα καλείται), να χάσει 5 δις δολάρια και να καταστραφεί !
Οι σορτάκηδες μεγαλοδιαχειρστές κεφαλαίων στοιχηματίζουν στην υποτιμητική κερδοσκοπία: πουλάνε μια μετοχή και ρίχνουν την τιμή για να αγοράσουν φθηνότερα και να κλείσουν θέση με κέρδος.
Σπάνια χάνουν αφού σχεδόν πάντα «κατευθύνουν» τις τιμές.
Όμως με αυτό που αναφέρθηκε, μια μαζική κίνηση μικρών επενδυτών στήριξε και ανέβασε την αξία μιας παραδοσιακής εταιρείας video games( χωρίς προοπτική και καινοτομία προϊόντων, χωρις λανσάρισμα κάποιου growth story ) «γκρεμίζοντας» έστω για λίγο τον μύθο που θέλει τους μεγάλους παίχτες να είναι ανίκητοι. Εξοχή ανάλυση για το θέμα έκανε ο Marios Emmanouilidis (Facebook) για όποιον ενδιαφέρεται. Απλά να προσθέσω ότι ίσως και να έχουμε το πρώτο ιστορικό συμβάν εναντίωσης ενός «πλήθους» στις ολιγαρχικές τακτικές των ισχυρών κερδοσκόπων. Αλλά προσωπικά υπολογίζω, λογικά, πως θα είναι απλά μια μεμονωμένη περίπτωση. Η ουσία: μια κολεκτίβα μικρομεσαίων συμφερόντων έδρασε «έξυπνα» και κατατρόπωσε το «έξυπνο χρήμα» των περίφημων hedge funds. Μοιάζει σαν ρωγμή στο σύστημα, αλλά μάλλον δεν πρέπει να βιαστούμε.
Ο χρηματιστηριακός ακτιβισμός μικροεπενδυτών απέχει πολύ από το να στοχεύει σε ριζοσπαστική ανατροπή συσχετισμών μέσα στις αγορές. Στα χρηματιστηριακά παίγνια, το ιδεολογικό πρόσημο στις συναλλαγές είναι εκτός όρων λειτουργίας. Τα χρηματιστήρια είναι ο μεγάλος βραχίονας του κεφαλαίου. Είναι ο ιμάντας μεταφοράς πλούτου από τους πολλούς στους λίγους και ο ανελκυστήρας αμύθητων περιουσιών με κεφαλαιοποιήσεις από το πλασματικό κεφάλαιο. Χρειαζόμαστε τα επαναστατικά διαλείμματα στην αρένα των αγορών.
Αλλά πρέπει να μην ξεχνάμε ότι στην εποχή της έκστασης των συναλλαγών, οι ισχυροί του χρήματος θα είναι πάντα οι font runners : θα είναι πάντα πιο μπροστά. Μόχλευση και παράγωγα τους εξοπλίζουν με ταχύτητα και κερδοσκοπική ισχύ ώστε μέσω των συναλλαγών υψηλής συχνότητας ( high frequency trading) να προλαβαίνουν την κατοχύρωση των κερδών τους είτε από αντισταθμιστική είτε από ανατιμητική ή υποτιμητική κερδοσκοπία. Οπότε φαινόμενα σαν το πρόσφατο στην Wall Street φρονώ ότι έχουν πεπερασμένη δυναμική.
Όλα αυτά απαιτούν ένα ευρύτερο και αναγκαίο, πολιτικό πλαίσιο ρύθμισης, παρέμβασης, και εποπτείας των αγορών. Αυτές είναι που μπορεί η Δημοκρατία, αν το θελήσει η Πολιτική, να τις «ελέγξει». Αυτό που δεν ελέγχεται είναι το παρασιτικό/πλασματικό κεφάλαιο που τροφοδοτεί τις αγορές και δυστυχώς πηγάζει από την «ασυμμετρία πρόσβασης» σε φθηνό χρήμα που εκδίδουν οι κεντρικές τράπεζες.
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